While weather forecasters remain divided on how the monsoons will play out in India over the next few months, analysts believe the news at the current juncture - at best - can trigger a knee-jerk reaction in the markets. They believe it is too early to say whether the sub-par monsoon on account of El Nino can seriously dent the market sentiment in the short-to-medium term. "These are just initial forecasts and we will have another round / status update from the weather forecasters a month down the line.
India has built up buffers against cyclical difficulties and has ample foreign exchange reserves to withstand pressure on credit worthiness, S&P Global Ratings said on Thursday. Speaking at the India Credit Spotlight 2022 webinar, S&P Sovereign & International Public Finance Ratings director Andrew Wood said the country has a strong external balance sheet and limited external debt, making debt servicing not so expensive. "The country has built up buffers against cyclical difficulties like those, which we are experiencing right now," Wood said.
For the banking system a new cycle starts in FY2024. It's fraught with fresh challenges on asset quality and profitability, warns Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
AI will continue to grow in capacity, and the newer versions will keep us in a state of hypnosis. But there would still be a shadow of uncertainty, predicts Atanu Biswas.
Expenditure on new projects slowed down for the second quarter in a row amid an uncertain global environment and higher borrowing costs. There were new projects worth a cumulative Rs 3.26 trillion in the July-September period, according to data provided by project tracker Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). This figure is much less than Rs 4.39 trillion in the June quarter (Q1FY23) and Rs 8.46 trillion in the March quarter (Q4FY22).
The Tata group is planning to invest $90 billion in new industries such as mobile components plant, semiconductor, electric vehicles, batteries, renewables energy and e-commerce by 2027. The Tata group's investment in India is far higher than the $75-billion investments planned by Mukesh Ambani-owned Reliance Industries and $55-billion investment planned by the Adani group in the next five years in the country, the Economist reported recently. The investment by the Tata group is a shift in its strategy to focus more in the home markets instead of international markets where the group lost money.
Let's take a look at some of the most polluted cities in the world's biggest economies.
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The immigration bill, from the US point of view, is going to bring in much more talent to the US, which is desirable aid, said economist Arvind Subramanian.
Fitch Ratings on Thursday slashed India's GDP growth projection for FY23 to 7 per cent, saying the economy is expected to slow against the backdrop of global economy, elevated inflation and high interest rate. In June, it had forecast 7.8 per cent growth for India. "We expect the economy to slow given the global economic backdrop, elevated inflation and tighter monetary policy. "We now expect the economy to grow 7 per cent in the financial year to end-March 2023 (FY23) from 7.8 per cent previously, with FY24 also slowing to 6.7 per cent from 7.4 per cent before," Fitch said in its September edition of the Global Economic Outlook.
'The Indian economy has become like a car that has the appropriate wheels on one side -- political liberalism -- and scooter wheels -- economic illiberalism -- on the other,' points out T C A Srinivasa Raghavan.
India's merchandise exports in June rose by 16.78 per cent year-on-year to $37.94 billion while the trade deficit ballooned to a record $25.63 billion on account of a steep increase in gold and crude oil imports, according to the government's preliminary data released on Monday. The export growth in June moderated from 20.55 per cent in May and 48.34 per cent in June 2021. During the month under review, exports of engineering, pharmaceutical and plastic products recorded negative growth.
Dr Rakesh Mohan, former RBI deputy governor, and Dr Pronab Sen, former chairman of the Indian Statistical Commission discuss the issues facing the Indian rural and manufacturing sectors and what the government must possibly do to improve demand and perk up the Indian economy
The Reserve Bank of India has already reduced the policy rate by a total of 75 basis points, or 0.75 per cent, since January.
'When the average growth in the last three years was just 2.5%, how does that make us the fastest growing country?' 'They only tell you what has happened in the last 2 years; they are not taking into account what happened in FY21 on account of their mistakes.'
India's 100 top billionaires have seen their fortunes increase by Rs 12,97,822 crore since March last year when the Covid-19 pandemic hit the country and this amount is enough to give 13.8 crore poorest Indians a cheque for Rs 94,045 each.
'Government's focus should be on the expenditure side in this Budget, not so much on the taxation side.'
Though Narendra Modi doesn't know it, he is a victim of this deep-rooted infection.
'Experts are not ruling out further pain as global factors cannot insulate India from the aftermath.'
The outlook is improving and that mostly reflects the fact that the new government has pledged to prioritise economic reforms.
Of $90 billion remittances that India is expected to receive in 2022, only $27.4 billion has come in the first half of the year.
The external environment has worsened further. While the Finnish economy entered into a recession, Swedish economic growth also dipped. The Finnish gross domestic product (GDP) dropped 0.6 per cent in October-December, 2022. It was the second quarter of negative growth, which is a technical definition of recession.
India's exports are unlikely to get an immediate boost from a depreciating rupee, which touched an all-time low on Monday, driven by rising commodity prices. The rupee fell to 76.97 against the dollar earlier in the day, settling 1.05 per cent weaker than the previous close. Oil prices soared to their highest since 2008 on Monday at $139 per barrel, after the US and European allies explored a Russian oil import ban, while delays in the potential return of Iranian crude oil to global markets increased supply fears.
'The corruption charges in FCI are not the first and won't be the last.'
India's economic growth rate slipped to 6.9 per cent in the second quarter this fiscal, the lowest in nine quarters.
It is a trend that economists and researchers say might continue. The data shows the share of this age group in the net EPF accounts created - a proxy for net new formal jobs created - fell from 37.9 per cent in 2018-19 to 24.1 per cent in 2021-22.
Friedman was participating in a session on India Outlook at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Wednesday where Finance Minister P Chidambaram was present.
The neo classical economists will have great pleasure in knowing that the Indian farmer has now acted in accordance with the basic assumptions of their theory.
'The term 'pro-growth' must be qualified somewhat because, while a rising tide will lift all boats, it will not necessarily do so equally.'
A theory that is doing the rounds is that with election nearing, this depreciation of the rupee will allow politicians of all hues to bring back their ill-gotten wealth.
Raghuram Rajan, the PM's honorary economic advisor, said in 2006, 'It is important for India to exchange its paternalistic, directive government, which seeks to remedy every wrong through a subsidy, a quota, or a scheme, for one that creates an enabling environment for the people and unleashes their entrepreneurial zeal.' Two years later, his words seem prescient. But how much of what he says should be done will be done by the government in the limited tenure it has left.
India is likely to be the fastest-growing Asian economy in 2022-23, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley. They expect India's gross domestic product growth to average 7 per cent during this period - the strongest among the largest economies - and contributing 28 per cent and 22 per cent to Asian and global growth, respectively. The Indian economy, they said, is set for its best run in over a decade as pent-up demand is unleashed.
The Xi Jinping regime might try to quell internal distress by directing nationalism and militarism against India, warn Ajay Shah and Gautam Bambawale.
The only real solution to the jobs crisis, whether in India or abroad, is to direct tech innovation towards job enhancing sectors, and disincentivising job-replacing ones, observes R Jagannathan.
If that happens, India's economic size will be just shy of $20 trillion and its annual per capita income will be about $10,000, when the country celebrates its centenary of independence.
Companies are also worried about inflationary pressures building up.
The government should not go in for an 'aggressive fiscal consolidation' in the upcoming Budget as global risks have not abated, RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Member Ashima Goyal said on Wednesday. Goyal further said subsidies are expected to come down as food and energy inflation moderates. WPI inflation in food articles in November was 1.07 per cent against 8.33 per cent in the previous month.
The debate boils down to what path India should take in coming years as slower growth puts further poverty reduction at risk in the world's second-most populous nation.
Later, Sitharaman's office clarified that the FM had already met the industrialists, experts, and economists during the pre-budget consultations.
Nowadays, our politics is habituated to sitting on a high pedestal, hobnobbing with world leaders, generating impressions of a superpower and returning to earth for the purpose of winning elections. In contrast, the yatra never left earth, observes Shyam G Menon.
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